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Highlights Apple analyst Kuo predicts stable iPhone 16 shipment numbers Key suppliers TSMC and Largan report similar order volumes to last year iPhone 16 expected to feature the new A18 chip for enhanced AI capabilities Potential stable demand hints at a maturing smartphone market Ming-Chi Kuo, a respected Apple analyst, has cast doubt on recent reports suggesting Apple was planning a significant increase in iPhone 16 shipments for 2024. This new information challenges previous expectations and offers insights into Apple's production strategy for its upcoming flagship device. "The launch of Apple Intelligence is generally considered to be the reason for the increase in iPhone 16 orders. However, Apple Intelligence will only be available in Beta for US users in 2H24, and Apple Intelligence Siri only supports English. Regardless of whether Apple Intelligence alone can drive replacement demand (which is another big topic), the expectation that consumers will buy the new iPhone 16 for the Beta version of Apple Intelligence in 2H24 may be too optimistic." Kuo said in a blog post. Supplier Insights Ming-Chi Kuo Predicts Stable iPhone 16 Shipments Kuo cites recent earnings calls from two key Apple suppliers, TSMC and Largan, which hint that iPhone 16 orders may not have increased as previously rumoured: TSMC stated they "did not see kind of unit growth suddenly increased." Largan reported that "orders for high-end models this year are similar to last year." These statements from major suppliers carry significant weight, as they would be directly impacted by any substantial changes in Apple's production plans. Order Expectations Apple analyst Kuo predicts stable iPhone 16 shipment numbers According to Kuo's understanding: Some suppliers have seen an increase in iPhone 16 orders for the second half of 2024. From the EMS/assembly perspective, iPhone 16 orders for the same period remain largely unchanged at about 87 million units. This is slightly lower than the iPhone 15 orders for the second half of 2023, which were around 91 million units. “My understanding is that some suppliers have seen an increase in iPhone 16 orders for 2H24, but from the EMS/assembly perspective, the iPhone 16 orders for 2H24 have not seen much change (about 87 million units), still slightly lower than the 2H23 iPhone 15 orders (about 91 million units),” said Kuo. Kuo concludes that Apple's iPhone 16 expectations might be in line with iPhone 15 shipments from last year, contradicting earlier reports of a 10% increase. iPhone 16 Features and Market Implications iPhone 16 expected to feature the new A18 chip for enhanced AI capabilities Despite the potentially stable order numbers, the iPhone 16 lineup is expected to receive the new A18 chip. This could be a key marketing point for users interested in Apple Intelligence features, as the base iPhone 15 won't support AI capabilities. The powerful new chip with Apple Intelligence support might still prove compelling for many customers, especially those considering the lower-priced iPhone 16 model. This suggests that Apple may be focusing on feature enhancements rather than volume increases to drive sales and maintain market share. Industry Impact pple are seeing stabilised demand rather than continuous growth The potential lack of increased orders could have broader implications for the smartphone industry. It may indicate a maturing market where even major players like Apple are seeing stabilised demand rather than continuous growth. This could influence strategies across the industry, potentially leading to a greater focus on innovation and feature differentiation rather than volume production. As the fall launch approaches, the market will be watching closely to see how Apple positions the iPhone 16 and whether these new features can drive sales without a significant increase in production orders. The company's approach to balancing innovation with production volume could set important precedents for the wider tech industry. Apple iPhone 16 Specs GENERAL Sim Type Dual Sim, GSM+GSM Dual Sim Yes Sim Size Nano + eSIM Device Type Smartphone Release Date September 07, 2024 (Expected) DISPLAY Type Color OLED Screen (1B Colors) Touch Yes Size 6.12 inches, 1200 x 2600 pixels, 120 Hz Aspect Ratio 20:9 PPI ~ 447 PPI Features Super Retina XDR Display, HDR Display, True Tone, Wide Color (P3), Haptic Touch, 1200 Nits Max Brightness (HDR), Support for Display of Multiple Languages and Characters Simultaneously Notch Yes, Small Notch MEMORY RAM 8 GB Storage 128 GB Card Slot No CONNECTIVITY GPRS Yes EDGE Yes 3G Yes 4G Yes 5G Yes 5G Bands 5G NR (Bands n1, n2, n3, n5, n7, n8, n12, n20, n25, n26, n28, n30, n38, n40, n41, n48, n53, n66, n70, n77, n78, n79) VoLTE Yes Wifi Yes, with wifi-hotspot Wifi Version Wi-Fi 7 Bluetooth Yes, v5.4, A2DP, LE USB Yes, Lightning Port USB Features USB on-the-go, USB Charging EXTRA GPS yes with A-GPS, Glonass Fingerprint Sensor No Face Unlock Yes Sensors Barometer, Three‑axis Gyro, Accelerometer, Proximity Sensor, Ambient Light Sensor 3.5mm Headphone Jack Lightning NFC Yes Water Resistance Yes, 6 m upto 30 min IP Rating IP69 Dust Resistant Yes Extra Features Satellite Connectivity, Crash Detection CAMERA Rear Camera 48 MP f/1.5 (Main) 12 MP f/2.4 (Ultra Wide) with autofocus Features Panorama, Night Mode, Deep Fusion, Smart HDR 4, Photographic Styles, Burst Mode, Photo Geotagging Video Recording 4K @ 24/25/30/60 fps UHD, 1080p @ 25/30/60 fps FHD Flash Yes, Dual LED Front Camera 12 MP f/1.9 (TrueDepth) with Retina Flash Front Video Recording 4K @ 60 fps UHD, 1080p @ 60 fps FHD TECHNICAL OS iOS v18 Chipset Apple Bionic A17 CPU Octa Core Processor GPU Apple 4 Core GPU Java No Browser Yes MULTIMEDIA Email Yes Music AAC‑LC, HE‑AAC, HE‑AAC v2, Protected AAC, MP3, Linear PCM, Apple Lossless, FLAC, Dolby Digital (AC‑3), Dolby Digital Plus (E‑AC‑3), Dolby Atmos and Audible (formats 2, 3, 4, Audible Enhanced Audio, AAX and AAX+) Video HEVC, H.264, MPEG‑4 Part 2 and Motion JPEG, HDR with Dolby Vision, HDR10 and HLG FM Radio No Document Reader Yes BATTERY Type Non-Removable Battery Size 3500 mAh, Li-ion Battery Fast Charging Yes Wireless Charging Yes, 25W MagSafe Music Playback Time 100 hours FAQs What did Ming-Chi Kuo reveal about iPhone 16 shipments? Kuo indicated that iPhone 16 shipment numbers for 2024 are expected to be stable and not significantly increased, contrary to previous reports. What insights did Apple suppliers provide? Key suppliers TSMC and Largan reported that they have not seen a sudden increase in unit growth, with order volumes remaining similar to last year. What are the expected features of the iPhone 16? The iPhone 16 is anticipated to feature the new A18 chip, which supports enhanced AI capabilities, particularly appealing to users interested in Apple Intelligence features. How do the iPhone 16 order expectations compare to iPhone 15? Kuo noted that iPhone 16 orders for the second half of 2024 are about 87 million units, slightly lower than the 91 million units for the iPhone 15 in the same period of 2023. What could stable iPhone 16 orders imply for the industry? The stable order numbers may suggest a maturing smartphone market with stabilized demand, potentially leading to a greater focus on innovation and feature differentiation over volume production. Also Read: iPhone 16 to Boast Enhanced RAM and Wi-Fi Speeds, iPhone 16 Pro Upgrades to Superior 5G Also Read: iPhone 16 Series Reported To Feature Tetraprism Camera Technology Also Read: Apple Shares Dip Amid Concerns Over iPhone 16 Demand and Market Outlook

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